The Observer Magazine ran a feature on The New Brazil which was ok as far as it went, but failed dismally to explain how the new Brazil was, like most developing countries, trapped in the global capitalist economy. What was produced was little more than an eclectic mix of post card sized portraits that, when removed from their wider economic circumstances, could mean just about anything to anyone, and nothing much in particular. There were some revealing quotes and the journalists went out of their way to try and present a Brazil far removed from the usual stereotypes of beach parties and free flowing football. But without reference to Brazil’s dependence on the global capital markets, it all ends up, despite the best intentions of the journalists, as hopelessly superficial.

Brazil has had for the past twelve years a committed leftist government, who’s current President boasts some serious left wing credentials. But when the international money markets determine that they can get a higher rate of return by shifting capital back to the US or elsewhere, all the well-meaning social programmes and wealth redistribution policies tend to come unstuck. That is precisely where Brazil finds itself at present. For a decade or more capital flowed into Brazil and other developing economies where cheap labour and mineral resources promised good returns. Unlike much of post-colonial South American gangster history, The Brazilian Workers Party genuinely tried to shift some of this capital to urgently needed social programmes. Maybe they could have done more but they were surely travelling in the right direction.

But the government under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got carried away with this unexpected Brazilian boom-time and pitched for both the FIFA World Cup and the Olympic Games. Brazil got both. But the expenses needed to meet the infrastructure requirements of these global sporting jamborees are phenomenal and the desperately needed social programmes took a back seat. Then capital, for reasons tied entirely to its own logic, began to drift away from Brazil. The social programmes took a double whammy. But by now, expectations had been raised and the new middle class were demanding a modern state with good social provision, good governance and social mobility. When the government couldn’t deliver, a million people poured onto the streets to protest. It may well happen again this summer.

Jonathan Watts, interviewing a left wing politician writes:

He (Jean Wyllas) predicts tensions will mount between the two poles of Brazilian politics: a conservative camp of bankers, businesses, religious fundamentalists and those who miss the dictatorship that ended in 1985 and a progressive camp comprising the LGBT movement, indigenous rights supporters and racial equality campaigners.

Jean Wyllas himself then adds:

I expect to see greater radicalism and violence as the two forces come more to the fore. People want more than food and more than the consumer market; they want transparency in politics, transparency in public spending, less corruption between the state and the private sector, and they want more participation in the political system.

This is a noble enough shopping list, but unless governments can take control of capital flows in and out of their countries, the chances of meeting these expectations are extremely low. And we might add, this is as true for the developed economies like Britain, Europe and the US as it is for the developing nations. But capital no longer recognises national boundaries and national agendas. It only follows its own agenda. Capital in the twenty first century is not interested in nation building, it merely, remorselessly moves to the highest point of return. A government could be left, centre or right, the money markets couldn’t give a damn. It’s profitability that count and Brazil’s Workers Party are learning that lesson the hard way.

One side of me desperately hopes that Brazil can muddle through the self-inflicted mess that they’re in and continue in a vaguely socialist direction. The other more cynical side wishes to see the whole rotten edifice of global capitalism come crashing down, taking with it the vain and fanciful dreams of FIFA, the IOC and those stupid enough to play along with those international gangsters and their bloated corporate backers. What a pity The Observer journalists failed to at least open up this debate.